Essential reading for the informed vaper.
The future of vaping is uncertain.
Think:
The FDA is on a mission to ban 99% of e-cigs in the USA…
denying choice to the 10% of adult Americans who vape.
And EU regulations will affect many millions of vapers in Europe.
What will happen to vapers – and vape technology – in 2016?
To find out, we spoke to different
voices from across the industry, including a scientist, an analyst, a
documentary film maker, activists, bloggers and more.
Here’s what they had to say.
Contents
- Who we spoke to
- Predictions
- Drawing it all together
- A Billion Lives: Trailer
- Downloadable PDF
- 2015 Predictions
Who we spoke to:
Konstantinos Farsalinos, MD:
Konstantinos is the e-cigarette industry’s most prolific and best known
researcher. Simply put, it’s impossible to do justice to his enormous
contribution to vaping in a short paragraph. Website | Prediction
Clive Bates:
Former director of Action and Smoking in Health, Clive Bates commands
huge respect in the e-cig world and has been instrumental in the public
health U-Turn on e-cigs in the UK. Website | Prediction
Tim Phillips, E-Cig Intelligence:
E-Cig Intelligence digs deep into the trends and regulatory changes in
the e-cig industry. Few should be able to predict changes in tends more
accurately than MD, Tim Phillips. Website | Prediction
Lorien Jollye, New Nicotine Alliance:
Unpaid vape activist, Lorien, has spent years speaking about the
benefits of e-cigs for the consumer, and has presented at E-Cig Summit,
in parliament and many other conferences. Wesbite | Prediction
Jim McManus, Director of Public Health:
Jim works to improve the health of over 1,1 million people in
Hertfordshire. His writings and talks combine deep insight with
compassion and humour. Blog | Prediction
Oliver Kershaw, founder ECigaretteForum:
Inventor, blogger, activist – Oliver has many strings to his bow! He is
best known for founding e-cigarette forum, which has helped millions of
smokers to switch to vaping. Forum | Prediction
Aaron Biebert, A Billion Lives:
Aaron is the director of A Billion Lives. Due to be released next year,
the documentary aims to expose the lies and conflicting interests that
have dogged the industry from its inception. Check out the trailer at
the end of this post! Website | Prediction
Julia Hartley Barnes, Spinfuel Magazine:
Julia writes for and edits American vape magazine Spinfuel. The site is
known for its honest (and sometimes brutal) vape reviews.Website | Prediction
Dimitris aka The Vaping Greek:
If you’re a vaping enthusiast, Dimitris needs no introduction! Vlogger,
blogger and activist, his entertaining and educational videos have
racked up millions of views. Website | Prediction
Dick Puddlecote, blogger:
Dick is a libertarian blogger who takes no prisoners. If you’re easily
offended, don’t read his blog. If you do read it, you’ll find it
aggressive but also funny and insightful. Website | Prediction
Scott Bonner (aka igetcha69) E-Cig-Reviews:
Back in 2008 when ECigaretteForum had just 100 members, Scott took his
first vape. Since then his candid YouTube videos have helped tens of
thousands of smokers switch to e-cigs. Website | Prediction
Joe Petner, Vapor Joes:
Controversial blogger Joe Petner aims to find the best e-cig deals for
his thousands of followers. He’s also been very spot on in some of his
previous predictions for this blog. Website | Prediction2016 E-Cig Predictions
2016: A Challenging Year For The E-Cigarette Industry And For Public Health
Konstantinos Farsalinos, M.D.
This year is going to be challenging. Challenging for the e-cigarette industry, because they have to adapt to upcoming EU regulations,
bypass any hurdles in product development and testing, and promote user
satisfaction and safety. Challenging for Public Health, to finally
accept the important role of e-cigarettes in promoting the health and
reducing the risk for smokers.
Research will again be the major and only
argument supporting the positive impact of e-cigarettes on the
population. Additionally, more evidence will determine the safest way of
using e-cigarettes, in terms of materials choice and impact of new
technologies such as temperature control.
Another challenge for the industry will be
the strong presence of Big Tobacco in the e-cigarette market. They are
coming fast, and with a large amount of evidence. This is not
necessarily bad, but we need innovation coming from small and
medium-sized companies, and we need competition and product variability.
The independent e-cigarette companies will need to adjust their
strategy, promote research and development and make their products more
effective and appealing to smokers.
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Totally Wicked Will Win (Some!) Of Its Case
Clive Bates: Blogger, Activist, Ex Director ASH England
Totally Wicked will win some of its case –
not even the most politically biased judge will be able to find that
all Article 20 of the Tobacco Products Directive promotes the free
movement of good in the internal market, or harmonises the laws of
members states.
Some of Article 20 will survive the court
challenge and this will begin to create havoc for no useful purpose in
the vapour market – hitting businesses with a wide range of products,
sold at low volumes especially hard and making life easier for tobacco
companies.
At the same time, we will see the start of
innovative workarounds – legal, DIY or black-market – with more
interest in cross-border internet trade, thus depriving UK and EU
business of sales and redirecting custom to wholesalers in China –
another win for the EU prosperity agenda! We will see new business
models develop to overcome burdens of regulation – for example, many
suppliers import exactly the same products from China: by nominating a
single importer the products would be notified only once.
Heat-not-Burn products
will hit the European market before 20 May 2016, when Article 19 of the
TPD cuts in – expect to hear a lot from Philip Morris International as
it brings its Marlboro-branded iQOS to market. It will do better than
most vaping consumers expect, but not as well as PMI hopes.
The products will continue to improve,
with major uptake of temperature control and more compact high powered
batteries. The tobacco companies will get their act together through
R&D or further acquisition and start to offer well-packaged easy to
use products with better nicotine delivery. Licensed medical vapour
products will hit the market, but what seemed like a good idea in 2012
will only prove popular with a narrow niche of consumers – those who
wish to use NRT now.
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Click to tweet this quoteCompliance Will Drive Acceptance and Growth
Tim Phillips: E-Cig Intelligence
What we can be sure of in this fast-moving
e-cigarette sector is that any prediction of what will happen in 2016
is going to be wrong. But broadly I’m very optimistic for the future.
The period will be overshadowed by
regulation, with the Tobacco Products Directive coming into force in
Europe in May, and the U.S. FDA’s deeming regulations
likely to appear in the early parts of next year. But I think despite
this, there will be increased growth in the sector, driven by improved
consumer confidence in the category and better products coming onto the
market.
Yes, the regulations will be far from
perfect, and yes, they will be burdensome, particularly for smaller
companies, but the costs of compliance will be a fraction of the tens of
millions of dollars predicted by some. And while consumer confidence is
at an all time low, with more consumers believing in 2014 that
e-cigarettes are “as dangerous or worse than” combustible cigarettes
compared to the previous year, the sector needs to step back and accept
that it has an image problem.
This is particularly true amongst the very
group who could benefit most from the category: those smokers who have
yet to try an e-cigarette. Having “compliant” product in the market,
however imperfectly the regulations are implemented, will drive
acceptance and growth in the category, and consumer behaviour is a much
stronger force than regulatory pressure can ever be.
It’s not all good news of course: some of
the major threats still on the horizon include blanket marketing
restrictions as countries try to block all forms of advertising of the
products, distance-sales restrictions obliging customers to only buy
in-store, and burdensome tax. But 2016 will also see a huge increase in
the amount of science and data published on e-cigarettes, which can only
lead to more understanding and better acceptance of this exciting new
product category. Contrary to what some commentators have been saying
this year, the sector is not over by any means – it’s just starting.
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Click to tweet this quoteRegulators Are Going To Struggle
Lorien Jollye, New Nicotine Alliance
2016 is going to be a peculiar year as PH
come more and more onside at the same time as the TPD threatens to tear
the rug from under our feet.
The MHRA are going to have so much
paperwork land on their desks I suspect an entirely new office is going
to be needed just to house it all. Meanwhile, the vastly underfunded and
understaffed Trading Standards will be throwing up their hands in
despair with wails of ‘we just cannot do this!’.
Aside from dealing with impending
legislation globally, we have to start finding ways to ‘de-demonise’
nicotine as this continues to be one of our biggest problems. We are
going to need to be tireless and brave next year, it’s gonna be a long
one!
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Click to tweet this quoteThe Division in Public Health Will Grow
Jim McManus, Hertfordshire Public Health
My hope is that the next year or two will see more people take up e-cigarettes as a way out of smoking.
My fear is that the impact of a badly designed TPD
will perversely keep some people smoking tobacco leading to the
entirely preventable disease, disability and death its authors purport
to support.
I think we will see the division in public
health grow. A small but growing flow of public health professionals
will realise the benefits of e-cigarettes to get people off tobacco,
especially people who find it most difficult to move from tobacco.
As the cuts to public health in England,
smoking cessation services who engage constructively with this trend
will find a way into a more sustainable future than those who don’t. For
those who don’t, footfall will continue to drop and, in an atmosphere
of cuts, more and more smoking services which show fewer and fewer
customers will become prime candidates for cuts.
Public health professionals who remember
vaping gets its strength from being a consumer driven movement will reap
better health benefits from their populations than those who seek to
control vaping and access to e-cigarettes. Those who try to buck the
market will find it doesn’t work.
Regulation Will Be a Mess, But Innovation Will Continue
Oliver Kershaw Founder: E-Cigarette Forum
Next year’s the biggie for EU vapers and I
almost don’t want to predict what’s going to happen. It’s going to be a
mess, that much is sure.
Some EU nations will be much stricter than
others in enforcement, which makes a bit of a mockery of the
“harmonisation” justification for the law.
Of course, with other markets currently
still open for now, vaping innovation can carry on apace. I’ve just
returned from China where I’ve seen some very exciting new stuff, and
hopefully we’ll start to see it getting into the hands of many more
smokers globally.
In the US (as elsewhere) it’s going to be a
numbers game. The more smokers who migrate, the harder it’s going to be
to justify the FDA’s insane plan to destroy the market. Innovation is
key here: the last year has seen a few developments, but their benefits
to the wider smoking consumer are still unclear.
Still, soon it will no longer be possible
for the CDC (and others) to claim that the drop in smoker numbers is
down to anything other than vaping products. Sadly, the FDA would rather
turn the category into a homogenised product owned by big tobacco
incumbents who have no real interest in seeing it succeed.
There are two documentaries which have
chronicled the global vaping movement over the last year. Both will
released roughly the same time early next year. A Billion Lives (US
production) and Vape Wave (French
production) will both tell one of the most fascinating stories of our
times. I hope they have a huge impact in public perception globally.
And public perception is key here. If the
vape issue is to be decided in the court of public opinion, as things
stand we’re on the wrong side of that judgement.
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Click to tweet this quoteThe Smear Campaign Will Continue
Aaron Biebert: A Billion Lives
In 2016, smoke-free vaping advocates in
Europe will watch their options begin to narrow as public health
authorities use the fear of hurting children to justify continued
restrictions on life-saving vaping options for smokers.
Unless judges step in, watch for new
attacks that are backed by Big Pharma and eagerly accepted by the
governments who profit most from traditional cigarette sales. Despite
this continued campaign against alternatives to smoking, many US firms
will see it as a safe haven for investment in the industry. Competition
will increase in the e-liquid market.
Those supporting vaping as a way to quit
cigarette smoking in the United States will finally see what happens
when the burden of advocacy is only carried by a small percent of the
industry.
Despite new studies showing vaping to be
much healthier than smoking, the smear campaign will continue as funding
and influence from Big Pharma and the CDC push public health
organizations to continue the war on vaping. 2016 will be a year of
litigation.
However, as cigarette sales continue to
fall, the biggest threat to vaping will be from local and state
governments passing new restrictions and taxes to pay for their social
programs and payday loan style “tobacco bonds”.
Since many states still do not have
organizations in place to protect vaping businesses and their customers,
these bans will be enacted relatively easily. Many vape shops will
close. Many smokers will keep smoking.
The wild card will be our movie, A Billion
Lives. If the public begins to truly understand vaping and the
corruption at play, politicians and health leaders will be less likely
to say and do things that support cigarette sales. Unless the film
reaches massive audiences in 2016, the shift in perception will probably
take until 2017.
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Click to tweet this quoteVapers Are Blissfully Unaware Of What’s Coming
Dick Puddlecote, Blogger
When trying to predict the future of
e-cigs and vaping in 2016, it’s difficult to find anything positive to
say. While the vast majority of vapers have been enjoying their
new-found freedom from tobacco, attending festivals and sharing
handchecks, the professional anti-harm reduction crowd have quietly got
on with their business.
Just as there was little effort towards
stopping alcohol Prohibition in 1920s America because “drinkers were too
busy drinking”, so many vapers – and even vendors – are blissfully
unaware of what is coming down the track next year.
In the EU, 28 member states are being
ordered to cease all e-cig advertising from May, and misleading warnings
will be slapped on e-liquid supplies, so much so that information on
what the consumer is actually buying will be reduced to an almost
illegible afterthought.
Most devices currently being used will
become non-compliant overnight and onerous regulations on manufacturers
will decimate the market and render choice almost irrelevant.
The measures planned are only, at time of
writing, starting to materialise, but it looks very much like Vapefests
won’t be that exciting when the number of stalls are slashed and the
flavours reduced to just a few ‘safe’ nondescript lines. Perhaps then
some vapers who thought the lectures from vaping advocates at these
events were tedious might reflect that they could have spent more time
listening to what they could have done to stop the onslaught instead of
walking on by.
In the USA, the FDA deeming regs look like
being even more damaging, it’s hard to see the vaping market existing
at all under current proposals. Meanwhile, on both sides of the Atlantic
and beyond, bans on vaping – indoors and outdoors – are installed on a
daily basis without even a nod to science or unintended consequences.
‘Friendly’ tobacco controllers bleat
mildly that there is no call for the bans, but their approach is notably
less forthright in defending vapers than it is when they are demanding
evermore odious restrictions on smokers. The latter are always urgent, a
‘ticking time-bomb’, whereas where e-cigs are concerned they’re just,
well, “concerned”.
So I can only expect more
counterproductive bans on vaping, more of the public being convinced
that vapour is dangerous, more lies and misinformation being accepted as
truth, and the attraction of e-cigs as an alternative to smoking being
systematically destroyed by vested interests – and easily-gulled
politicians – who pay lip service to their self-professed care for
health.
The Trend Toward High VG and Lower Nicotine levels Will Continue And Grow
Julia Hartley-Barnes, Spinfuel Magazine
We’ve been very lucky these past few
years. Escaping major regulations, the industry has been growing on a
global scale. Will our luck run out in 2016? Maybe.
I tend to be pessimistic when governments
get involved in anything, and I see no reason for optimism now. It might
be that we see no changes next year, or the year after, but it cannot
continue indefinitely.
Below are some thoughts on things that
could happen next year, based on experience and reading as much
‘negative’ news as I can. Only by knowing what the anti-vaping crowd is
saying and doing can we understand how far they are willing to go. We
know what we believe, but it is even more important to know what “they”
believe. – Julia
Vape Gear
1 – This year (2015) we’ve reviewed so
many excellent high VG e-liquids that I believe the trend toward High VG
and lower nicotine levels will definitely continue and grow. With these
“better” eliquids come even more high wattage vaping instruments and
lower resistance atomizers. But how high can you go before it gets too
high, and how much lower can low resistance coils get? At some point we
all have to say “when”. That could come in 2016.
China
2 – China’s Planned Obsolesce for vaping
products will continue in 2016. Unfortunately, this planned obsolesce
doesn’t equate to much innovation. Most of the products to come out of
China this year have been incremental improvements, laid out according
to this ‘plan’, without significantly true innovation behind these new
products.
I believe that in the latter part of 2016
more vapers will come to the conclusion that what they have is fine, and
will begin to turn away from every new “version” of the products they
use because the benefits of the newer version are not enough to warrant
the expense. Perhaps more vapers will begin to turn to US made devices,
as they have done with e-liquids back in early 2013.
FDA
3 – As FDA regulations get closer to
becoming a reality we should see weak vendors begin to bale out. Even if
the FDA doesn’t do anything brash we can all expect to pay more for
vape gear and e-liquids, consumers and wholesalers. I’ve seen a few of
my friends get out of the business this year, and I expect to see more
in 2016.
Economy
4 – If we are pretending that it will be
business as usual in 2016 I suspect we’ll see many new start-ups in
China trying to take a slice of the multi-billion-dollar market. Whether
any of them make any headroom into the marketplace is anybody’s guess.
The major manufacturers have a tight grip right now, so it will take
vastly improved devices to see them show up on the radar. I’m not
confident in the concept of honest competition in China.
5 – Without a constantly growing Chinese
economy there will be massive shortcuts in production to protect
profits. If the vaping industry slows down due to regulations around the
world or by lack of innovation, or anything else, I expect to see more
catastrophic failures of vape gear in consumer’s hands. This could
(will) lead to more regulations affordable vape online, tighter controls, a fearful public. A
single major incident could wreak havoc on the industry.
Lithium Polymer
6 – I don’t expect to see a major
improvement with lithium based batteries in the vape industry or
anywhere else in 2016, but I expect to see more Lithium Polymer driven
devices in 2016.
EU Tobacco Directive
7 – It is hard to imagine European
governments deliberately killing the vape industry in their respective
countries, but that could very well happen in May of 2016 when new
directives for “tobacco products” take hold. It would take a miracle for
any EU government to recognize that the products sold for vaping are
not tobacco products. There isn’t much faith of a “Knight on a White
horse” rushing in to save the day. I could be wrong, but I believe
classifying vape gear and eliquid as tobacco products will become
official and Europe will feel the pinch in a big way by years’ end.
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Click to tweet this quote2016 Will Be The Year of Vape Politics.
Dimitris Agrafiotis aka The Vaping Greek
2016 is without a doubt going to be the
most tumultuous year in our industry’s history. We are going to finally
see a rule from the FDA attempting to regulate electronic cigarettes
under their tobacco jurisdiction. For us that are ex smokers and this
product literally saved our lives that is a tough acceptance. I for one
struggled many years to break away from the tobacco chain addiction and
all of sudden I find myself back in the same perception as I did when I
smoked combustible tobacco (many of the last few years hiding behind a
dumpster).
On one hand I am glad that we will finally
see a rule so we know where to begin our fight. Many states took action
simply because they did not want to wait for the federal regulations
(and their cash registers drained) that have caused many small
businesses troubles and have disrupted the chain of distribution. State
laws unlike federal can be enacted quickly and via special interest
groups with huge pockets can pass legislation damaging to the vaping
industry such as laws passed in Indiana and D.C. this past year.
But now our focus once again shifts to an
unfair classification and pre market application review for a product
that was never intended to be regulated as such. Simply put the FDA is
trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.
I predict 2016 will be filled with
litigation, the biggest we have seen so far and hopefully a much needed
outcry by us the users of the products that may have taken advocacy not
so seriously in the past, especially since the consumer choices will be
limited or flat out eliminated as predicted by many other experts based
on the proposed deeming rule.
The key to any successful advocacy
movement is organization. No such person or business in our sector is
such a powerful force that they will effect change themselves.
So brace for it my fellow vapers, We have
to go on the offensive in 2016. A concentrated effort by industry and
consumers that overlooks a micro view of business and taking on a macro
perspective of how to unify and work as one to overcome bad policy.
Quality E-Cigs Will Come to the Mass Market
Scott: E-Cig Reviews
For the past few years the vaping world
has been dominated by highly sought after and expensive mods and
atomisers. Brought to us by many skilled mod makers, these have taken
vaping to the next level and beyond.
During this time, mass produced items from
countries such as China were frowned upon. Generally, these were either
geared towards the beginner market, poor quality attempts at original
mods or clones of established products.
But at the end of last year the Aspire Atlantis came to market, followed closely by the Kanger SubTank.
Since then, I’ve felt that the mass
produced Chinese made products have been improving consistently – whilst
still retaining the low cost price point for the customer.
From a personal view point, I think its
fantastic that these products are original in design – and don’t just
simply pinch other people’s designs and concepts!
These days we can get a good quality
original atomiser for less than £30. We can have it setup and running in
seconds (thanks to pre built coils) and get a performance equal in
quality to atomisers costing 5 times as much.
Vaping needs to be cheaper, easier and yet
still have high performance. That’s why I think 2016 will be the year
for the mass produced market.
I can also see more collaboration between
respected mod makers and Chinese manufacturers to share designs and
concepts. (One example is the Evolv and their DNA boards for example).
This will bring quality goods to the mass market that will be available
to everyone – at a very reasonable price.
I love the “high end” products on the
market. Built by hand or produced in limited numbers, their appeal to
the vaping hardcore won’t be dwindling any time soon.
But if we can get to a place where high
end products and mass produced products can perform equally well,
everyone regardless of their budget will have access to a top class
vape!
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Click to tweet this quoteThe Year The E-Cig Bubble Will Burst
Joe Petner
If you look at my past predictions you will find I’m extremely accurate. This is a warning to all vendors.
This year my predictions are a bit more
grim. This has nothing to do with regulation or the FDA but more about a
market correction. The Ecig market is saturated.
It seems every vapor wants to start an
online business, a juice line, or open a store. All saturated markets
eventually have a bubble – and that bubble will eventually burst.
Unfortunately we have reached this moment.
The gravy train is over. Many online and physical store locations are
going out of business and many once popular juice lines are dying off.
As much as we hate this, it is necessary.
This clears the dead wood from the industry, allowing for more
innovations. The cream truly does rise to the top.
Companies that think smart and invest
smart will survive this correction. Vendors that continue to think
spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on useless promotion (i.e.
booth babes, stripper poles, and exotic cars at ecig shows) – will find
themselves the first to die off.
With that grim news out of the way we can talk juice and hardware.
Juice prices will continue to fall. With
this saturated market less and less people will spend $20.00 on a 30ml
bottle of juice. As I did with hardware, I have been pushing very
aggressively for juice prices to come down. I only promote companies
that have reasonable prices and it is working. The average juice price
has been cut in half at most locations. Companies wholesaling juice from
expensive lines are dumping them at bargain basement prices.
I expect this trend to continue through 2016.
In terms of hardware, I believe tube mods
will make a come-back. Over the last year we have seen the prolific
production of box mods continue. While I still prefer box mods, vapers
get bored quickly and unless there is some sort of new innovation, tube
mods may be the back in style by Q3 or Q4 of 2016.
In Conclusion
If there’s one thing clear about 2016, it’s that nothing is clear.
The FDA regulations
could wipe out 99% of vaping products in the US. But will the
government impose legislation that will annoy 10% of the US adult
population?
EU regulations are coming into place in May 2015. But they’re still not clearly defined, and they’re being challenged in court.
Meanwhile, the UK government doesn’t like
the regulations. The MHRA claims that the enforcing the regulations is
outside its mission and that it won’t even look at all submissions.
Trading Standards remains chronically under-resourced.
There’s a good chance that e-cig regulation won’t be effectively enforced.
Technology seems to have come to a bit of a
standstill. Will the ridiculously fast innovation cycle slow down, or
will manufacturers come up with something completely new?
One thing that won’t change is attacks on
the disruptive e-cig industry, financed by bodies threatened by the
success of the device.
Only if vapers finally stand up for themselves will we be able to use our huge numbers to defend vaping.
I hope you found this post useful. If you did, I’d really appreciate if you could take a second to share it on social media.
Thank you
Reference: http://www.ecigarettedirect.co.uk/ashtray-blog/2015/12/2016-e-cigarette-predictions.html
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